RSX / RSXJ recovery monitor
A zero valuation
does not mean zero value.
Scenario-based estimates of potential liquidation distributions from stranded Russian ETFs. Fund holdings, local value and sanctions constraints — on one screen.
Not investment advice · Not a price forecast · Data may be delayed
RSX · VALUE GAP31 JUL 2026
Official NAV$0.34
0$11.16
Gross local estimate32.8×
The gap is not arbitrage. Sanctions, ownership rights, liquidity, FX conversion and costs stand between local value and any distribution.
ETF trading discontinued Liquidation plan remains active Local assets remain inaccessible Future distributions may be possible
Scenario lab
From local value to a potential distribution
Loading delayed MOEX data…
RSXVanEck Russia ETF
Snapshot: 30–31 July 2026Probability-weighted indicator$0.60shown only to compare scenarios; this is not fair value
Comparison per fund share
27/27
Position coverage
27 of 27 disclosed security lines are valued. Cash and the money-market reserve are shown separately and excluded from this denominator. Coverage does not imply legal access or recoverability.
Largest matched positions
RSX: local portfolio value
0/27 priced from MOEXMOEX matches include 9 DR proxies and a conditional EVRAZ rights proxy. IESK is a Level 3 range. None of these values establishes legal access or recoverability.
#SecuritySharesStatusMOEX priceLocal value
01SBER RMSberbank46,050,016MOEX matched—$159.8M
02LKOH RMLukoil2,063,982MOEX matched—$119.2M
03NVTK RMNovatek7,452,940MOEX matched—$93.4M
04GMKN RMNornickel52,917,800MOEX matched—$79.6M
05ROSN RMRosneft16,922,345MOEX matched—$73.9M
06GAZP RMGazprom45,772,138MOEX matched—$52.8M
09IESK RU ↗Irkutsk ElectronetworkMidpoint used in the model; range shown in local value7,410,870Level 3 estimate—$58.6K–$213.8K
11ALRS RMAlrosa33,188,190MOEX matched—not valued
13IRAO RMInter RAO482,502,010MOEX matched—not valued
15MOEX RMMoscow Exchange17,946,312MOEX matched—not valued
16NLMK RMNovolipetsk Steel22,272,460MOEX matched—not valued
18PHOR RMPhosAgro705,974MOEX matched—not valued
20RASP RMRaspadskaya730,890MOEX matched—not valued
21RTKM RMRostelecom13,944,591MOEX matched—not valued
23SNGS RMSurgutneftegas125,211,510MOEX matched—not valued
25TRNFP RMTransneft preferred2,097,200MOEX matched—not valued
27VTBR RMVTB Bank13,375,470MOEX matched—not valued
Realized / exited holdings
What prior realizations actually tell us
VanEck's public filing reports 2024 sales only in aggregate, not by security. The verified comparison below is therefore against historical accounting cost — not a reconstructed MOEX fair value.
2024 cash distributions$89.77MDistributions are not the same as sale proceeds: they can include income, corporate actions, reserves and timing differences.
Positions that exited the disclosed portfolio
SecurityLast disclosed quantityLast seenIndividual proceedsFair-value discount
TCS LITCS Group Holding GDR1,390,47030 Jun 2023not disclosednot verifiable
MTSS RMMobile TeleSystems14,853,03830 Jun 2023not disclosednot verifiable
MGNT LIMagnit GDR130 Jun 2023not disclosednot verifiable
No longer present in later holdings; the filing does not itemize whether the exit was a sale, corporate action or securities-lending close-out. N-PORT ↗
!
Why no security-level fair-value discount? The public report does not provide each trade date, execution price or proceeds allocation. Any precise percentage would be false precision.
Portfolio history
Current-holdings local value
A reconstructed backcast using today's disclosed share quantities and historical MOEX closes. It is not historical RSX NAV.
MOEX reconstruction shown until the database has enough daily snapshots
Building history from MOEX daily candles…
Uses the current snapshot FX rate for comparability; it does not reconstruct historical conversion terms.Actual cash history
VanEck RSX distributions
Historical distributions per fund share reported by VanEck. Past distributions do not imply another payment.
$0.01
$0.04
$0.22
$0.68
$0.02
$0.31
$0.34
$0.03
Official source robot
VanEck changes, tracked automatically
The monitor is establishing its first official baseline.
A daily monitor checks official VanEck holdings and liquidation notices. Validated fund figures are applied automatically; text changes remain linked for review.
The monitor is establishing its first official baseline.
Path to a distribution
Unlocking is a chain, not a single decision
The removal of one sanction is not enough. Funds must pass every legal and operational gate.
RSX and RSXJ trading halted
The exchange suspended secondary trading after access to Russian assets was lost.
Delisting and initial distributions
The funds distributed available liquidity and retained the unsold securities.
Securities moved to local registrars
Decree No. 840 added another operational layer to confirming ownership rights.
Sales and fund transfers remain restricted
VanEck reports no material change that would allow the assets to be sold.
Authorization → sale → conversion → distribution
All four steps must become legally and operationally possible.
1Authority to sellregulatory risk
2Access to assetscustody risk
3RUB → USD conversionoperational risk
4Transfer of proceedsoperational risk
5Distribution through DTCCoperational risk
Methodology
We show the assumptions, not an answer.
RSXValue matches VanEck-disclosed positions to locally traded securities, including nine separately labelled depositary-receipt proxies, one conditional EVRAZ rights proxy and one Level 3 estimate. It converts gross look-through value into dollars and applies user-selected assumptions.
potential distributioncash + Σ(local value × access × sale × FX) − costs÷ estimated fund shares outstanding
Contact / corrections
Found an error? Tell us.
Report a data issue, suggest a correction or send general feedback. Please include the ticker and source link when possible.
david.abragimov@gmail.com ↗